No I don't believe in the "crazy mullah" meme. Nothing in recent history (say the last 100 years) supports this notion. In fact, the recent history of Iran is one of being attacked and invaded by its neighbors (Russia, Iraq and others). It would be against their interest to close the strait, a measure of last resort. And why do it when they are reaping the rewards of the war in Iraq? Besides sea denial is not a winning strategy, as two world wars have shown. Why anger your costumer base (everybody that depends on oil) when you can buy them off? Even at the height of the Iran-Iraq war when the Iranians where at their most desperate they did not try to close the strait, only pressure Iraq by g...

No I don't believe in the "crazy mullah" meme. Nothing in recent history (say the last 100 years) supports this notion. In fact, the recent history of Iran is one of being attacked and invaded by its neighbors (Russia, Iraq and others). It would be against their interest to close the strait, a measure of last resort. And why do it when they are reaping the rewards of the war in Iraq? Besides sea denial is not a winning strategy, as two world wars have shown. Why anger your costumer base (everybody that depends on oil) when you can buy them off? Even at the height of the Iran-Iraq war when the Iranians where at their most desperate they did not try to close the strait, only pressure Iraq by going after their tankers.

Unless you believe in the self-immolating, kamikaze mullah theory, this is unlikely to happen. However, if confronted with imminent collapse of their goverment due to an attack by a foreign power (like the U.S.) then I don't think the leadership would hesitate to use whatever is available to hit back.

The Iranians are many things, but they are not stupid.