Signs of the Singularity


	Signs of the Singularity

wildcat

6-1-2008 3:49 AM

1220 views

tags:

vernor vinge, singularity

wildcat says:

By Vernor Vinge
First Published June 2008

3 Comments |

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6-1-2008 1:04 PM

willhelm

Ray Kuzweil is convinced the singularity is on the horizon. Kurzweil's track record on scientific prediction and futurism is astounding.

6-2-2008 2:45 AM

stopsmokingtoday

Of course his disclaimer IF we can avoid self inflicted catastrophes, unfortunately we appear to be screwing our climate up so badly that it is on the verge of the point of no return.

6-2-2008 2:34 PM

tanyamm

There's a big "IF" factor in everything that is said or done.

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<div style="margin: 12px 0px; font-family: arial; color: #333333; background: #ffffff; border: solid 4px #e5e5e5; width: 100%; clear: left;"><div class="CM_CTB_Content_Wrap" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="border-bottom: solid 1px #dcdcdc; white-space: nowrap; margin-bottom: 8px; background-color: #eeeeee ;background-image: url(http://www.clipmarks.com/images/source-bg.gif); background-repeat: repeat-x; height: 24px; line-height: 24px; vertical-align: middle; padding-bottom: 4px; color: #666666; font-size: 10px;" ><a href="http://clipmarks.com/clip-to-blog/" title="see clips that are hot right now"><img src="http://content.clipmarks.com/blog_embed/d177bb64-f26d-447c-85e8-61c2067cccf2/5512055A-881E-41A1-A7C5-4DDDD9702445/" alt="" width="19" height="19" border="0" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 4px; display: inline; border: none; float:none;" /></a>clipped from <a title="http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/jun08/6306" href="http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/jun08/6306" style="font-size: 11px;">www.spectrum.ieee.org</a></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/jun08/6306"><H5>Hints of the singularity's approach can be found in the arguments of its critics</H5></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/jun08/6306"><div align="center"><img src="http://content8.clipmarks.com/blog_cache/www.spectrum.ieee.org/img/3027C8C2-1C9C-4234-9612-009541605B5C" alt="" /></div></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/jun08/6306"><P>I think it's likely that with technology we can in the
                fairly near future create or become creatures of more
                than human intelligence. Such a technological
                singularity would revolutionize our world, ushering in a
                posthuman epoch. If it were to happen a million years
                from now, no big deal. So what do I mean by “fairly
                near” future? In my 1993 essay, “The Coming
                Technological Singularity,” I said I'd be surprised if
                the singularity had not happened by 2030. I'll stand by
                that claim, assuming we avoid the showstopping
                catastrophes—things like nuclear war, superplagues,
                climate crash—that we properly spend our anxiety upon.</P></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/jun08/6306"><P>
                <SPAN class="bold">The AI
                Scenario:</SPAN> We create superhuman artificial
                intelligence (AI) in computers.</P></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/jun08/6306"><P>
                <SPAN class="bold">The IA
                Scenario:</SPAN> We enhance human intelligence
                through human-to-computer interfaces—that is, we
                achieve intelligence amplification (IA).</P></blockquote></div><div style="margin: 0px 6px 6px 4px;"><table style="font-size: 11px;border-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;">&nbsp;</td><td align="right" style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;width:107px" width="107"><a href="http://clipmarks.com/share/5512055A-881E-41A1-A7C5-4DDDD9702445/blog/" title="blog or email this clip"><img src="http://content9.clipmarks.com/images/c2b-foot.png" border="0" alt="blog it" width="107" height="17" style="border-width:0px;padding:0px;margin:0px;" /></a></td></tr></table></div></div>

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