The stakes are formidable. Experts estimate that contraband accounts for 12 percent of all cigarette sales, or about 657 billion sticks annually. The cost to governments worldwide is massive: a whopping $40 billion in lost tax revenue annually. Ironically, it is those very taxes — slapped on packs to discourage smoking — that may help fuel the smuggling, along with lax enforcement and heavy supply. (A pack of a leading Western brand that costs little more than $1 in a low-duty country like Ukraine can sell for up to $10 in the U.K.) That potential profit offers a strong incentive to smugglers.

Despite its broad impact on health, crime, and taxes, tobacco smuggling receives strikingly little...

The stakes are formidable. Experts estimate that contraband accounts for 12 percent of all cigarette sales, or about 657 billion sticks annually. The cost to governments worldwide is massive: a whopping $40 billion in lost tax revenue annually. Ironically, it is those very taxes — slapped on packs to discourage smoking — that may help fuel the smuggling, along with lax enforcement and heavy supply. (A pack of a leading Western brand that costs little more than $1 in a low-duty country like Ukraine can sell for up to $10 in the U.K.) That potential profit offers a strong incentive to smugglers.

Despite its broad impact on health, crime, and taxes, tobacco smuggling receives strikingly little attention from authorities. Lenient sentences are the norm; in some countries, cigarette smuggling is not even considered a crime. Nor is it a priority for law enforcement agencies, even in the West, which spend the majority of their resources tackling drug, arms, and terrorism cases. In the United States, for example, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives devotes a paltry 2 percent of its personnel and budget to tobacco programs.

Terrorists are increasingly turning to cigarette smuggling for funding. The move is part of a larger trend toward use of criminal rackets by terrorists, who find trafficking in cigarettes a high-profit, low-risk way to finance operations. Among the groups are Pakistan’s Taliban militias, for whom cigarettes are now second only to heroin as a funding source.
Each year, the world’s four top multinational tobacco companies —
Philip Morris International, Japan Tobacco International, Imperial
Tobacco, and British American Tobacco — produce and import 30 billion
cigarettes in Ukraine beyond what the country can consume, fueling a $2
billion black market that reaches across the European Union. Today,
Ukraine is rivaled only by Russia as the top source of non-counterfeit
cigarettes smuggled to Europe.