Housing is falling much faster than reported


	Housing is falling much faster than reported

ericskiff

5-18-2007 3:42 PM

696 views

tags:

real estate, housing bubble, housing, economy, money

ericskiff says:

Even as a little as a few months ago, the deniers were still out in full force, saying that everything was going to be just fine. Now even the NAR is owning up to the trouble they've helped cause, and it's probably a lot worse than they're saying.

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<div style="margin: 12px 0px; font-family: arial; color: #333333; background: #ffffff; border: solid 4px #e5e5e5; width: 100%; clear: left;"><div class="CM_CTB_Content_Wrap" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="border-bottom: solid 1px #dcdcdc; white-space: nowrap; margin-bottom: 8px; background-color: #eeeeee ;background-image: url(http://www.clipmarks.com/images/source-bg.gif); background-repeat: repeat-x; height: 24px; line-height: 24px; vertical-align: middle; padding-bottom: 4px; color: #666666; font-size: 10px;" ><a href="http://clipmarks.com/clip-to-blog/" title="see clips that are hot right now"><img src="http://content.clipmarks.com/blog_embed/62f1ffdd-bedd-47e7-b007-175bda140ea4/84996DBF-94A6-484A-ADE1-F66835796B34/" alt="" width="19" height="19" border="0" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 4px; display: inline; border: none; float:none;" /></a>clipped from <a title="http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/05/housing_is_fall.html" href="http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/05/housing_is_fall.html" style="font-size: 11px;">bigpicture.typepad.com</a></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/05/housing_is_fall.html"><P>Real Estate Consultant <A href="http://www.realestateconsulting.com/usanalysis/usanalysis200705.html">John Burns</A> has looked at the housing data and reached a rather interesting conclusion: <EM>"</EM><EM>The housing market has softened much more than is being reported.</EM></P></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/05/housing_is_fall.html"><DIV>Given all the negative news coverage, that's almost hard to believe. But John does a good job dissecting the data, and he is now concerned  that both the publicly disseminated New and Existing Home Sales information is misleading. Even worse, he fears, is that  policy makers are relying on this bad data to conclude that the housing market correction has not been too severe.</DIV></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/05/housing_is_fall.html"><SPAN>
• <STRONG><U>Closing Data</U></STRONG>: Sales have actually fallen 22% year-over-year, based on comparing trailing 12 month periods. If you
compare year over year sales, the decline is even more severe. </SPAN></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/05/housing_is_fall.html"><SPAN>• <STRONG><U>Builder Data</U></STRONG>: D.R.
Horton and Lennar have reported that orders have declined 27% to 37%,
year-over-year -- even as they have dropped prices
significantly. These are the nation's two largest homebuilders.</SPAN></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/05/housing_is_fall.html"><div align="center"><img src="http://content8.clipmarks.com/blog_cache/bigpicture.typepad.com/img/2737B683-9A5E-4781-8B9A-D232BA51CA6E" alt="Usbmi200705_1a" /></div></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2007/05/housing_is_fall.html">The <A href="http://www.realestateconsulting.com/usanalysis/usanalysis200705.html">entire piece</A>, and all of its sourcing, is well worth a read</blockquote></div><div style="margin: 0px 6px 6px 4px;"><table style="font-size: 11px;border-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;">&nbsp;</td><td align="right" style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;width:107px" width="107"><a href="http://clipmarks.com/share/84996DBF-94A6-484A-ADE1-F66835796B34/blog/" title="blog or email this clip"><img src="http://content9.clipmarks.com/images/c2b-foot.png" border="0" alt="blog it" width="107" height="17" style="border-width:0px;padding:0px;margin:0px;" /></a></td></tr></table></div></div>

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