Can a fringe branch of mathematics forecast the future?


	Can a fringe branch of mathematics forecast the future?

psinexus

10-11-2007 1:01 PM

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tags:

maths, science, interesting, future

psinexus says:

Can a fringe branch of mathematics forecast the future? A special adviser to the CIA, Fortune 500 companies, and the U.S. Department of Defense certainly thinks so.

http://www.goodmagazine.com/section/Features/the_new_nostradamus

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<div style="margin: 12px 0px; font-family: arial; color: #333333; background: #ffffff; border: solid 4px #e5e5e5; width: 100%; clear: left;"><div class="CM_CTB_Content_Wrap" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="border-bottom: solid 1px #dcdcdc; white-space: nowrap; margin-bottom: 8px; background-color: #eeeeee ;background-image: url(http://www.clipmarks.com/images/source-bg.gif); background-repeat: repeat-x; height: 24px; line-height: 24px; vertical-align: middle; padding-bottom: 4px; color: #666666; font-size: 10px;" ><a href="http://clipmarks.com/clip-to-blog/" title="see clips that are hot right now"><img src="http://content.clipmarks.com/blog_embed/04c68fec-af3e-4b7f-9b33-90cf161b5fa0/8C670250-EF39-40F9-ADFA-2E7ED66692EC/" alt="" width="19" height="19" border="0" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 4px; display: inline; border: none; float:none;" /></a>clipped from <a title="http://www.goodmagazine.com/section/Features/the_new_nostradamus" href="http://www.goodmagazine.com/section/Features/the_new_nostradamus" style="font-size: 11px;">www.goodmagazine.com</a></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.goodmagazine.com/section/Features/the_new_nostradamus"><div align="center"><img src="http://content6.clipmarks.com/blog_cache/www.goodmagazine.com/img/35B5EF34-13D3-40EF-812D-37B25B305CFB" alt="The New Nostradamus" /></div></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.goodmagazine.com/section/Features/the_new_nostradamus"><H1 class="article-title">The New Nostradamus</H1></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.goodmagazine.com/section/Features/the_new_nostradamus"><DIV class="byline">
      Words By <A class="redLink" href="http://www.goodmagazine.com/user/MichaelLerner">Michael A.M. Lerner</A><BR />Photos By <A class="redLink" href="http://www.goodmagazine.com/user/EthanHill">Ethan Hill</A>
    </DIV></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.goodmagazine.com/section/Features/the_new_nostradamus"><P><STRONG>If you listen to</STRONG> Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, and a lot of people don’t, he’ll claim that mathematics can tell you the future. In fact, the professor says that a computer model he built and has perfected over the last 25 years can predict the outcome of virtually any international conflict, provided the basic input is accurate. What’s more, his predictions are alarmingly specific. His fans include at least one current presidential hopeful, a gaggle of Fortune 500 companies, the CIA, and the Department of Defense. Naturally, there is also no shortage of people less fond of his work. “Some people think Bruce is the most brilliant foreign policy analyst there is,” says one colleague. “Others think he’s a quack.” </P></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.goodmagazine.com/section/Features/the_new_nostradamus"><P>Predicted <STRONG>China’s reclaiming of Hong Kong</STRONG> and the exact manner the handover would take place, 12 years before it happened.</P></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.goodmagazine.com/section/Features/the_new_nostradamus"><P>Predicted France’s hair’s-breadth <STRONG>passage of the European Union’s Maastricht Treaty</STRONG>.</P></blockquote></div><div style="margin: 0px 6px 6px 4px;"><table style="font-size: 11px;border-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;">&nbsp;</td><td align="right" style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;width:107px" width="107"><a href="http://clipmarks.com/share/8C670250-EF39-40F9-ADFA-2E7ED66692EC/blog/" title="blog or email this clip"><img src="http://content7.clipmarks.com/images/c2b-foot.png" border="0" alt="blog it" width="107" height="17" style="border-width:0px;padding:0px;margin:0px;" /></a></td></tr></table></div></div>

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