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指數期權與股票期權判市要訣
aerowinx123
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7-5-2009 2:33 AM
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<div style="margin: 12px 0px; font-family: arial; color: #333333; background: #ffffff; border: solid 4px #e5e5e5; width: 100%; clear: left;"><div class="CM_CTB_Content_Wrap" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;background-color: #ffffff;"><div style="border-bottom: solid 1px #dcdcdc; white-space: nowrap; margin-bottom: 8px; background-color: #eeeeee ;background-image: url(http://www.clipmarks.com/images/source-bg.gif); background-repeat: repeat-x; height: 24px; line-height: 24px; vertical-align: middle; padding-bottom: 4px; color: #666666; font-size: 10px;" ><a href="http://clipmarks.com/clip-to-blog/" title="see clips that are hot right now"><img src="http://content.clipmarks.com/blog_embed/d00a802b-9072-45cf-a77d-3ea1d85e28aa/914AA8C3-DD2C-4527-8D57-A7A666ED0751/" alt="" width="19" height="19" border="0" style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 0px 4px; display: inline; border: none; float:none;" /></a>clipped from <a title="http://www.hkej.com/template/dnews/jsp/detail.jsp?dnews_id=922&title_id=106434&txtSearch=%E6%BD%98%E7%8E%89%E7%90%AA" href="http://www.hkej.com/template/dnews/jsp/detail.jsp?dnews_id=922&title_id=106434&txtSearch=%E6%BD%98%E7%8E%89%E7%90%AA" style="font-size: 11px;">www.hkej.com</a></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.hkej.com/template/dnews/jsp/detail.jsp?dnews_id=922&title_id=106434&txtSearch=%E6%BD%98%E7%8E%89%E7%90%AA"><DIV id="articleTime">2009年5月23日</DIV></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.hkej.com/template/dnews/jsp/detail.jsp?dnews_id=922&title_id=106434&txtSearch=%E6%BD%98%E7%8E%89%E7%90%AA"><H1> 指數期權與股票期權判市要訣 </H1></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.hkej.com/template/dnews/jsp/detail.jsp?dnews_id=922&title_id=106434&txtSearch=%E6%BD%98%E7%8E%89%E7%90%AA"><P>不過,分析指數期權和股票期權的重點略有不同。由成交可見,恒指、滙控、中移動的期權成交多集中在即月合約,在月底轉倉前3數日開始,會集中在下月。但其餘中資股,無論在月初、月中,成交多集中在季月(即3、6、9、12月)合約,即月成交相對不太重要。</P></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.hkej.com/template/dnews/jsp/detail.jsp?dnews_id=922&title_id=106434&txtSearch=%E6%BD%98%E7%8E%89%E7%90%AA"><P>上述所見,反映股票期權投資者,多偏向較長的投資期,並多以季月作結算及重新部署。此外,滙控及中移動雖亦是股票,但兩者用以控制大市升跌的作用太大,故短線成交較多,中線分析要看季月部署,但較易受到短線盤路干擾。</P></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.hkej.com/template/dnews/jsp/detail.jsp?dnews_id=922&title_id=106434&txtSearch=%E6%BD%98%E7%8E%89%E7%90%AA"><P>所以,投資者想利用期權盤路分析短期大市走向,期指、滙控及中移動的期權部署是較佳選擇。但想看一季投資的較中線部署的話,建行、工行、國壽及中行的期權盤路亦甚具研究價值。至於非中資國企股類的期權盤路,新地(016)、港交所(388)、長實(001)及和黃(013)的期權盤路有參考價值,唯除港交所外,其他的期權成交較主要中資股為低。</P></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.hkej.com/template/dnews/jsp/detail.jsp?dnews_id=922&title_id=106434&txtSearch=%E6%BD%98%E7%8E%89%E7%90%AA"><P>要判斷短期大市升跌,有一個十分簡單的方法可供參考,就是即月期權的認沽/認購比率(Put / Call Ratio,簡稱P/C Ratio)。按正常計,投資股票或大市者,多以期指淡倉或認沽期權控制風險,但日常成交計,多為短線炒作又或對大市有具體看法的裸倉(naked position)為主,對沖風險者只佔其中15%至30%,故正常情況下,P/C Ratio應為1.15至1.30左右。</P></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.hkej.com/template/dnews/jsp/detail.jsp?dnews_id=922&title_id=106434&txtSearch=%E6%BD%98%E7%8E%89%E7%90%AA"><P>若見P/C Ratio大於1.30甚多(如昨日即月恒指期權),便可推斷大市翌日下跌機會極大。但若見P/C Ratio遠低於1.15的話,翌日上升的機會便極大。不過,在應用這個方法時,筆者提醒讀者要留意兩個因素,其一,要留意成交行使價,若出現甚多價內的期權成交時,要將該成交由認購轉為認沽,又或相反。</P></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.hkej.com/template/dnews/jsp/detail.jsp?dnews_id=922&title_id=106434&txtSearch=%E6%BD%98%E7%8E%89%E7%90%AA"><P>另一個因素,是期權投資者不一定會成功盈利或看對市況,這個方法只有約七成準,所以只供參考,而非買賣指標。此外,這個方法可應用於半日市,即上午P/C Ratio可用以預期下午市況,但要預期明日市況,則用全日數據較有把握,而且,指數期權的準確性比股票期權為高。</P></blockquote><div style="height: 2px; font-size: 2px; background: #dcdcdc; border-bottom: solid 1px #f5f5f5; margin: 2px 4px;"></div><blockquote style="text-align: left; padding: 0px 8px; margin: 4px 0px 8px 0px; background: transparent; border: none;" cite="http://www.hkej.com/template/dnews/jsp/detail.jsp?dnews_id=922&title_id=106434&txtSearch=%E6%BD%98%E7%8E%89%E7%90%AA"><P>本周日(5月24日)下午2:30,筆者會於灣仔會展的財經博覽會舉行講座,分析下半年走勢及簡介過三關策略,有興趣的讀者可自行到場參與,費用全免。 kigoh12@gmail.com</P></blockquote></div><div style="margin: 0px 6px 6px 4px;"><table style="font-size: 11px;border-spacing: 0px;padding: 0px;" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tr><td style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;"> </td><td align="right" style="background:transparent;border-width:0px;padding:0px;width:107px" width="107"><a href="http://clipmarks.com/share/914AA8C3-DD2C-4527-8D57-A7A666ED0751/blog/" title="blog or email this clip"><img src="http://content6.clipmarks.com/images/c2b-foot.png" border="0" alt="blog it" width="107" height="17" style="border-width:0px;padding:0px;margin:0px;" /></a></td></tr></table></div></div>
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