What is the evidence that the surge hasn't worked?

Has anyone heard about the al Qaeda letter describing their condition in Iraq as a crisis?

The citizens of Iraq are ratting out the terrorists. They were afraid we would pull out and we have shown we will not. They trust us and they are helping make the difference. Also, recent reports throughout the Middle East are that the people of the Middle East are beginning to reject the militant ideology of al Qaeda. They are no longer indifferent and they are backing the US.

So... the troops have succeeded, but the person leading them has failed in leading them?

Didn't Captain Kirk use that argument to confuse that one android and make it blow a fuse?