AQI is being cut off with the Sunni tribal leaders support.
They have thrown their lot in with the Iraqi military, US
forces and Iraq government. al-Qaeda in Iraq is slowing being strangled.

Yet if you look at the in-depth reporting from the BBC, that does not appear to be the case (check out the little link on the right, I clipped it here). According to the overall information the rise and fall of casualties tend to have little or no correlation to the surge. Also this is the Baghdad goverment rushing out figures for a single month the day after the months over, wanna bet that those figures get quietly revised later on this month or the next?