Ratilfar, as utku said, an "invasion" as we know it, is out of question. Turkish military sees it as a "cross-border operation" against separatist PKK guerillas who are believed to have been based and trained in Northern Iraq. But of course, on the other hand, any kind of military operation beyond borders certainly means a violation of both international law and an independent country's sovereignity.

This "southeast question" has always been a bleeding wound in Turkey. My personal opinion is, there is no "right side" at this conflict. Turkish state and the official ideology is very intolerant against ethnical minorities in the country (actually, mainly the Kurds) and the state tends to "so...

Ratilfar, as utku said, an "invasion" as we know it, is out of question. Turkish military sees it as a "cross-border operation" against separatist PKK guerillas who are believed to have been based and trained in Northern Iraq. But of course, on the other hand, any kind of military operation beyond borders certainly means a violation of both international law and an independent country's sovereignity.

This "southeast question" has always been a bleeding wound in Turkey. My personal opinion is, there is no "right side" at this conflict. Turkish state and the official ideology is very intolerant against ethnical minorities in the country (actually, mainly the Kurds) and the state tends to "solve" the problem with military methods which usually means oppression. On the other hand, the separatist PKK uses obvious terrorist methods, attacking and ambushing Turkish troops, sending suicide bombers to civilian targets, always forcing a clash between Turkish and Kurdish population. Neither side shows any sign of a compromise.

As for the elections: Add a "secularism" conflict to this situation, between the government party and the opposition (including the military and state bureucracy) and try to guess the atmosphere here. PKK question creates a cold, nationalist wind in the country which I am afraid is only helping to carry the extreme-right MHP to the parliament. The same winds pushed CHP, a supposedly "social-democratic" party towards right, almost next to MHP. These two parties had always been "enemies" in 1970's and 80's but now with CHP rapidly sliding to right, they are the main "opposition" in the country against "moderate Islamist" AKP administration.

The ironic thing is, in this picture, Erdogan's AKP looks far more a "liberal" party than the rest. Here comes the worst thing: There's a very serious polarization in the country that appears as "AKP vs the others". Not a "healthy" atmosphere for such a critical election, for sure.

If the latest polls are accurate, AKP will not need a coalition partner, Sohil. Different polls show its votes somewhere between 39 and 48 percent. My guess is a clean 40 percent or slightly above it. This gives AKP around 300 MP's in the 550 members' parliament - which means a clear victory.

But there are many more problems that shake the political life in Turkey, like the "presidential election." The crisis began in April, when current president Necdet Sezer's term ended. According to our constitution, the president is elected by the parliament and a 2/3 majority is required, which means at least 367 MPs. In April, AKP's candidate was Abdullah Gul, the secretary of state but the party had...

If the latest polls are accurate, AKP will not need a coalition partner, Sohil. Different polls show its votes somewhere between 39 and 48 percent. My guess is a clean 40 percent or slightly above it. This gives AKP around 300 MP's in the 550 members' parliament - which means a clear victory.

But there are many more problems that shake the political life in Turkey, like the "presidential election." The crisis began in April, when current president Necdet Sezer's term ended. According to our constitution, the president is elected by the parliament and a 2/3 majority is required, which means at least 367 MPs. In April, AKP's candidate was Abdullah Gul, the secretary of state but the party had 354 seats at the parliament. CHP, the opposition party did not compromise and rejected Gul's nomination. With no other support outside of AKP, Gul could not be elected. According to the constitution, if the parliament fails to elect the president in 40 days, an early general elections become necessary. So, in a deadlock, the parliament decided to hold the elections on July 22nd, 3 months earlier than normal.

Now... If AKP manages to get 367 seats or more, it will be able to elect its own candidate as the new president. This scenario is not likely; probably they'll get around 300 seats. But even if it happens, the general feeling is, the military will not allow them which means a "moderate coup d'etat" smell in the air.

If AKP fails to get 367 seats but still has the majority with around 300 MPs and rejects compromises on other parties' candidates, the new parliament will fail to elect the president too. A total Gordion Knot...

AKP is planning a referendum after the elections for a constitutional change which will change the process and the president will be elected by people's votes, instead of the parliament. This means a new election process is on the horizon. New conflicts that would add on the present tension... Hard times are ahead for Turkey, to say the least.

Actually the results of this elections may look somewhat confusing, Sohil. It is true that AKP has been the voice of the growing conservative middle class in Turkey since the day it was founded in 2002. But on the other hand, especially after they won the 2002 elections, a new wave began to emerge in the party that pushes the democratization, civil rights and liberties, forcing AKP to become a kind of "liberal conservative" (not an oxymoron in Turkey as it may sound elsewhere) political movement. With this elections, AKP's role was like the "Christian Democrats" in Europe: Pro-western, democratic, defending liberal economy.

This is why, an important part of AKP's votes came from liberal ri...

Actually the results of this elections may look somewhat confusing, Sohil. It is true that AKP has been the voice of the growing conservative middle class in Turkey since the day it was founded in 2002. But on the other hand, especially after they won the 2002 elections, a new wave began to emerge in the party that pushes the democratization, civil rights and liberties, forcing AKP to become a kind of "liberal conservative" (not an oxymoron in Turkey as it may sound elsewhere) political movement. With this elections, AKP's role was like the "Christian Democrats" in Europe: Pro-western, democratic, defending liberal economy.

This is why, an important part of AKP's votes came from liberal right and even "left". The opposition block (CHP, MHP and most others) played the game tough with nationalist, pro-state, anti-American and anti-EU during their election campaigns.

I personally don't think AKP is a threat to Turkey's secular system. The foundations of secularism are very strong in Turkey and AKP's only opposition appears as defending to liberate the "scarf" in public areas, like universities and public offices. Of course we can't underestimate a minority among AKP's voters (les than 10 percent) who are against secularism in favor of Islam. But the party is sliding towards a central-right position under Erdogan's administration.

Willhelm, Turkey does have a secular system, though there is a minor religious opposition against it. There is no oppression for believers of an established religion, but I can't say the country is very comfortable for atheists, because of various reasons. The law protects your rights not to believe in any religion but there is an invisible "psychological oppression." This is why many atheists and agnostics look reluctant to express their opinions in public.