From this base case (XXX XXX XXX winning with an 11 point cushion), there are a couple deviations worth mentioning, given that Virginia and Pennsylvania seem to represent the most tenuous wins for McCain.

* If McCain loses Virginia (13 votes), he can still win by picking up any of the three western battlegrounds (NM, CO, or NV). Of these, at least Colorado appears plausible, so Virginia isn't necessarily a killer.
* If McCain loses Pennsylvania (21 votes), he needs to pick up any two of those western states. This is a stretch, so losing Pennsylvania would appear nearly lethal. The caveat here is that McCain could lose Pennsylvania and pick up only Colorado, which would yield a 269-269 tie.
* If McCain loses both Virginia and Pennsylvania, President Obama is a near mathematical certainty.

Boulder county will almost certainly vote Obama, with some of the lower counties as well. Denver is a toss-up going either direction. I am expecting Colorado to go McCain at this point.