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POPSMore on the future of Iraq's oil In case you missed this bit from last month (I did), a number of no-bid contracts have been put in place to bring US oil giants (plus BP and Total) back to Iraq as "service" operators. And -- surprise -- they get to be paid in oil, not cash.
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POPSTo the victor belong the spoils: Iraq's oil deal Andrew Sullivan reminds us that one of the Bush administrations official "benchmarks" for measuring progress in Iraq was the drafting of legislation to distribute Iraqi oil. Well, surprise, surprise, that legislation's been drafted, and the oil's been handed over to foreign companies with no bidding.
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POPSThoughts on Nangarhar from an ex-Marine An interesting and nuanced perspective, combining an appreciation for the culture of the Marines (and its flaws), an awareness of the high strategic stakes involved in any civilian killings by U.S. troops, and a much-needed reminder that U.S. forces have generally respected the law much more rigorously than any previous occupying or counterinsurgency force in history.
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POPSIs an end to capital punishment possible? Today was the international Day against the Death Penalty. Worldwide, more countries are placing moratoria on executions. Only "25 countries carried out executions in 2006," and "91% in just six countries: China, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, Sudan and the USA." Hmm. I suppose we're in good company.
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POPSBill Kristol: "Why Bush will be a winner" Bill Kristol of the Weekly Standard gives a mostly positive assessment of the Bush presidency. I mostly disagree, but it's worth a read. He's vague on what he thinks the U.S.'s real goals in Iraq are, but he is confident Petraeus will achieve them.
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POPSJust close your eyes and repeat after me ... Just close your eyes, stick your fingers in your ears, and repeat after me: "9-11 ... weapons of mass destruction ... al-Qaeda ... Defeatocrats ... birth pangs of a new Middle East ... 9-11 ... liberal media ... support our troops ... 9-11 ... spreading democracy and freedom ... better off without Saddam ... 9-11 ... last throes ... the surge is working ... welcome us as liberators ... 9-11 ... evildoers ... so we won't have to fight 'em here ... 9-11 ... "
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POPSLearning from history: the British pullout from Iraq, 1932 Maj. Joel Rayburn, a historian and officer now posted to CENTCOM, writes about the dangers of a too-hasty exit from Iraq, drawing on the British experience post-WWI. I need to read this more carefully, but it seems his ideas present a pretty strong rebuke to both Republican and Democratic positions on the war right now. He says: a purely military approach, which is what the administration is pushing (though they claim not to be) will probably make things worse, but leaving now would probably be just as bad. From Foreign Affairs; a cached version.
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POPSNir Rosen on the roots of the Iraq disaster Rosen responds to Bremer's self-justifying editorial in the Washington Post (http://snipurl.com/1lnc9) and shows that Bremer's policies early in the Iraq occupation probably contributed materially to the problems we're having now. Significantly, he shows how Bremer's attempts to justify his decisions reveal his staggering, profound ignorance about the nature of Iraqi society.
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POPS"We have discredited democracy in the eyes of Iraqis" Rory Stewart, an experienced British development worker, served in the coalition provincial administration of Iraq for a time. Here is his perspective on the state of affairs there. Significantly, he thinks the MNF's presence is "not improving things," because it provides focus and cover for insurgent activities and indirectly hinders the development of genuine political solutions. He reminds readers that whatever government eventually emerges in Iraq, "it will be Islamist and authoritarian," since the U.S.-led debacle has convinced many ordinary Iraqis that any attempt at democracy will be a disaster.
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POPSCivilian deaths in Iraq: causes and consequences Tucker argues that the Haditha debacle is symptomatic of an overstretched military that can no longer tell enemies from noncombatants, and points out, citing Petraeus's own work, that each civilian death makes counterinsurgency work harder and more dangerous by contributing to general mistrust and rage towards the U.S. and thus to insurgent recruitment.
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POPSBaghdad death-squad killings on the rise One of the major objectives of the surge was to end, or at least reduce, killings by death squads in the capital. However, since the surge began, the killings unfortunately seem to be increasing instead. Northern MNF commander Mixon says he needs more troops than he's getting.
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POPSLong-term effects of Iraq war likely worse than Vietnam for U.S. The WaPo interviews a number of experts who suggest that given the current situation, the Iraq war will probably have disastrously long-term fallout for U.S. global standing that "makes Vietnam look like a cakewalk." Already the rest of the world sees the war as incompetently mismanaged, ethically and legally indefensible, strategically misguided, and resulting in a massive humanitiarian catastrophe.
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POPSIraq and the sunk-cost fallacy Asks the question: are we staying in Iraq because we've already invested so much in it, or because we think success is possible? Compares this to the economist's "sunk-cost fallacy", the well-known explanation for "throwing good money after bad."
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POPSInterview with Jordan's Prince Hassan Extensive, multipart interview. Crown Prince Hassan (the late Hussein's brother) is no dummy; he is an excellent, hard-headed, realistic observer of Middle Eastern politics who works for peaceful coexistence rather than ideological triumphalism.
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POPSRepublicans in Congress: don't mention the surge An internal strategy memo from Congressional Republicans lays it out with startling clarity: "Democrats want to force us to focus on defending the surge, making the case that it will work... If we let the Democrats force us into a debate on the surge, or the current situation in Iraq, we lose." As always, they advise, just keep repeating "9-11, 9-11, 9-11" until people agree with you.
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POPSHere's the "proof" of Iranian involvement in Iraq Talking Points Memo has posted the briefing, in the form of Powerpoint slides, given to reporters a few days ago in Baghdad, which purports to prove that Iran is behind attacks on US troops in Iraq. Worth a perusal. It's interesting to note what it does and doesn't say.
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POPSEx-CIA Europe chief: "We probably gave Powell the wrong speech" Der Spiegel interviews Tyler Drumheller, former chief of CIA operations in Europe. He states candidly that intelligence regarding Iraq's WMD program was manipulated and/or ignored as the administration saw fit; Powell's UN speech relied on information that the CIA already suspected was false.
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POPSWhere's the new NIE on Iraq? Congressional request to John Negroponte to order the completion of an updated National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq. This has been in the works for some time, and D.C. rumors abound that its disclosure is being stalled for political reasons.
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POPSInformation suppressed on depleted uranium risks? More on DU. One of the reasons its health effects are so obscure is that the US military, which has had close to a million tons of the stuff manufactured, won't release information (even to soldiers) about when and where it has been used.
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POPSDepleted uranium and U.S. troops I think this is probably the best-known report on the health effects of depleted uranium munitions. No one knows for sure exactly how bad or how widespread the effects will be. DU projectiles and armor (which pulverize on impact and are then inhaled as dust) are widely used in the Iraq war.
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