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POPSFed's Yellen: Crisis "ongoing and perhaps deepening"
Second, export growth alone contributed one-half of the total real GDP growth registered in the second quarter. This element has been an important source of strength in our economy for over a year, being buoyed by strong growth abroad and by the weakening of the dollar. However, as I discussed, in recent months the dollar has risen somewhat and economic growth in many of our industrialized trading partners has slowed or even turned negative, suggesting that we can no longer count on exports as an important source of strength. Third, the problems in the housing markets, financial markets, and labor markets continue to be a drag on growth and employment. Fortunately, the recent fall in commodity prices should help to cushion some of this downward pressure on activity. Overall, I anticipate that real GDP growth in the second half of this year will come in below the growth of potential output which implies that the unemployment rate will rise. On its own, this obviously is not good new
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POPSUS Economy Rebounds According to Democrats - we have a terrible economy. So this surge must be due to... let's see what would work here well... Obama's acceptance speech tonight... and in the immortal words/voice of Jon Lovitz, "yeah, yeah, that's it!"
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POPSUK Recession is Months Away Not surprising news. But a chance to reflect on the past 18 months. First, there was denial of an economic slowdown. Then the idea of recession was laughed at. Now the discussion is of whether the recession will be a big one or a little one. Interesting contemporary case study of how the rhetoric of denial runs parallel to the realities.
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POPSInflation Going Up, Up, Up Home foreclosures, income going down in real terms, mounting job losses, a high trade deficit, the greatest national debt in US history, the largest budget deficit in US history, a negative national savings rate, 48 million Americans with no health care coverage and twice that many with inadequate health care coverage, and now rapidly rising inflation. But the top 5% of income earners aren't hurting. They are doing quite well. In fact, some of them have never done better. When do look honestly at the obvious and say precisely what is going on? That the political and economic system is not structured to serve most of us. It's essentially structured to serve an elite few. After saying it, when do we get angry enough to say that this slanted economic system isn't inevitable, that it doesn't have to be this way? When does our saying become loud voices demanding that this stepchild of feudal economics needs to be transformed to serve us?
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POPSCan Tax Rebates Really Prevent An Economic Downturn? If all works according to plan, more jobs will lead to more spending and thereby keep the economy from slipping into a recession. The theory behind reinvigorating capitalist economies with tax rebates is a lot like the idea of overcoming static friction, which you might remember from high school physics. When economic growth is stopped, it needs a large force to get it started, which the tax rebates theoretically provide. From then on, the hope is that all it will need are free-market forces to keep it going. Inside this Article 1. Can tax rebates really prevent an economic downturn? 2. How is a tax rebate plan implemented? 3. Criticism of Tax Rebate Plans 4. Lots More Information 5. See all Money & Economic Basics articles
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POPSThe Future of Fannie and Freddie Fannie and Freddie are too big to fail; they own or back nearly half of the nation’s $12 trillion in mortgage debt. In the wake of the housing bust, they are also about the only source of money still available for mortgage lenders. If they do not keep functioning more or less smoothly, the housing downturn will be deeper and longer than it would otherwise be. Housing prices would steepen further, creating more defaults, less consumer spending and lower tax revenues.
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POPSLow Spending Is Taking Toll on Economy "Growth" is now clearly a meaningless concept. On the necessities side -- food, fuel etc. -- inflation is counted as "growth". (No more food or fuel is being produced or used.) This is balanced against deflation and recession in the discretionary economy, and is interpreted as positive growth. These are two different phenomena and cannot be added together in a meaningful way. Yet achieving this growth is what economics is supposed to be all about. Just another reason why the so-called science of economics is literally nonsense and innumerate to boot.
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POPSCartoon Hero Will Save the Day
“In the past three months, average consumer spending on energy came to $663 billion, or 6.5 percent of total consumer spending. A year ago, it represented 5.8 percent.” In simple terms: “If gasoline breaks through $4 a gallon by Memorial Day, that would mean spending on gasoline would have risen by $100 billion since the beginning of the year, or roughly the size of the tax rebate checks going out.” According to Monday’s Providence Journal, “The United States, with the lowest fuel efficient vehicles and longest average commutes in the world, is the only major industrialized country to witness a surge in oil consumption since the severe oil shortages of the 1970s and the 1980s.” While European nations have taxed fuel to pay for other more efficient forms of transportation, the U.S. has taken an Underdog approach to the problem; swooping in with borrowed cash to pay the ransom oil companies demand on our transportation and heating needs. Next week President Underdog will begin mai
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POPSWhy Bother Being Green? Michael Pollan makes the excellent point that, with issues of climate change as dire as they are, one might think there's little point in changing small habits on an individual level. But he convincingly explains why that's not so. A lot of small things can add up, and there's a few pieces on www.forbes.com/opinions that share that sentiment. Check out our Earth Day package: http://www.forbes.com/opinions/2008/04/18/green-planet-earth-oped-cx_daa_0418green.html
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