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POPSSpeculators Chase the Money not Make the Money
I have a couple concerns about this story. One, even though it's a very small incident that had a negligible impact on the markets, I have a feeling politicians are going to use it as an example to introduce laws prohibiting or reducing oil trading. This despite the fact that there's even more research out there that says trading has not artificially inflated prices. It's supply and demand people - demand is greatly increasing, while supply is staying flat - of course prices are going to skyrocket. Second, it uses the correlation between the increase in oil price and the amount of money going into oil futures. Yet another basic market principle people - investors are going to chase hot items. Oil starts to go up, people anticipate it continuing to go up due to supply/demand issues, investors invest in it to hopefully make a profit. Finally, don't forget the dollar - people use oil as a hedge against inflation, which his been going up due in part to the weakening dollar.
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POPSHYPERINFLATION (read, watch, learn) In late 1923, Germany undertook a monetary reform creating a new unit of currency called the rentenmark. The German government promised that the new currency could be converted on demand into a bond having a certain value in gold. Proponents of the standard answer argue that the guarantee of convertibility is properly viewed as a promise to cease the rapid issue of money. An alternative view held by some economists is that not just monetary reform, but also fiscal reform, is needed to end a hyperinflation. According to this view a successful reform entails two believable commitments on the part of government. The first is a commitment to halt the rapid growth of paper money. The second is a commitment to bring the government's budget into balance. This second commitment is necessary for a successful reform because it removes, or at least lessens, the incentive for the government to resort to inflationary taxation.
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POPSHey Pal, Can You Spare $100 Billion? Since then the shelves of many shops and supermarkets have been largely bare, except when owners are prepared to risk being caught charging prices that reflect the cost of importing goods from South Africa. Huge queues form outside any bakery selling bread at a controlled price, and demand far outstrips supply.
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POPSNow Bush Is Appeasing Iran joined envoys from France, Britain, Russia, China and Germany in talks with Saeed Jalili -- Iran's nuclear negotiator and an Ahmadinejad confidant -- about incentives to give to Tehran. ven with record oil prices, mismanagement has driven the Iranian economy into the ground. On July 14, the Ministry of Housing reported an "historical" 125% rise in housing prices. The same day, Tabnak, a news Web site run by a former head of the IRGC, admitted foodstuff inflation had reached 50% annually. On July 8, 2008, a National Iranian Oil Company executive acknowledged in the Iranian press that, without significant investment in infrastructure, Iranian oil production would decline each year by 300,000 barrels a day. In the past month alone, Iranian workers have struck for unpaid wages at the Khodro automotive plant (which assembles Peugeots), the Alburz Tire Company, and the Haft Tapeh Sugar Cane factory.
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POPSLowering Interest Rates Would Be A BIG Mistake Everyone knows the economy is in trouble right now, but not raising, and even lowering interest rates would be a BIG mistake. Because of inflation, people are spending more and more of their budgets on basic necessities like food, fuel, clothes, etc. While lowering interest rates might keep mortgages more accessible and affordable, if inflation keeps rising, even if mortgages are down to 5% people won't be able to afford them, because all of their money will be going to their basic necessities. We need to curb inflation so that people can still afford to live in general, before we start worrying about keeping big ticket items like houses more affordable. And as far as banks go, isn't a free-market system supposed to allow some institutions that aren't performing or are making bad decisions fail? By continuing to bail some of these banks out that were making horrible decisions, you're just reinforcing bad behavior.
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